Grain and oilseed markets are soon going to shift their focus to planting intentions for 2011.

The USDA released its December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates on Friday. US corn ending stocks are estimated at 832 million bushels. Soybean ending stocks are pegged at 165 million bushels. Wheat ending stocks are estimated at 858 million bushels.

World wheat supplies were increased by 4 million metric tonnes as a result of increased production in Canada and Australia. Global corn stocks were raised slightly while soybean ending stocks for 2010-11 were tightened.

"I would really look for trade to start focusing on acreage estimates for next crop year after the final production report on January 12th," explains Brian Voth, market coach with Agri-Trend Marketing. "Corn and soybeans combined are going to need almost 9 million more acres in 2011 than what was grown in 2010, just to keep the balance sheets in check, and that doesn't allow for any production problems.

He explains US farmers will have to plant a minimum of 92.5 million acres of corn to satisfy the supply/demand balance. That's up from 88.2 million acres in 2010. To maintain the soybean balance, producers will have to plant a minimum of 82 million acres, up from 77.7 million in 2010.

"I would expect that between January and March we will continue to see markets trend higher in an effort to buy those acres, and for every acre that goes into corn and soybeans, it has to come out of something else," he says.

"It could really be a weather market next year because we can't afford any hiccups in production with how tight the ending stocks are getting."

~ Monday, December 13, 2010 ~