We’re in for a snowy and blowy Tuesday as a winter storm is on the way to our region. Special Weather Statements are in effect from the Saskatchewan border to the Red River, including the Pilot Mound, Manitou, Morden, Winkler, Altona and Morris areas. From the Red River east to the Ontario border Snowfall Warnings have been issued, including Winnipeg.
"We’re going to see almost a complete flip of what happened last week, when areas of the Southwest got all the snow, and the Red River Valley and Southeastern regions saw pretty much nothing," explained CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner. "The exact opposite is expected over the next couple days as an Alberta Clipper brings 10 to 20cms of snow to the Valley and Southeast, but considerably less for the Southwestern corner of the province."
This low pressure system will quickly slide out of the Rockies today, impacting parts of the province tonight.
"The current forecast models are indicating Snowfall Warning areas (which includes the Carman region) can expect somewhere between 10 to 15cms of snow by Tuesday afternoon, with the Western Red River Valley (Altona, Winkler and Morden areas) up to 10cm is likely," noted Sumner. "As you move further westward, staying south of the Trans Canada, up to 5cms is what we’re looking at. The snow will end by Tuesday afternoon in the Valley and Southeast, before noon in the Southwest. One thing I want to stress about the snowfall totals is those regions that fall right along the edge of where those Snowfall Warnings are could see higher totals than currently expected, because it would only take a slight shift in the storm’s track to lead to high totals."
According to Sumner, the snow is only one part of the story, and may end up being only a small part when we look back this winter storm.
"As this system moves to the southeast into the U.S., winds will shift to northwesterly by late Tuesday morning, with gusts up to 70 kilometers per hour expected in the Red River Valley and Southeastern areas, up to the 60km/h range in the Southwest. You combine that with the freshly fallen and still falling snow, and it’s likely we’ll see blizzard conditions develop Tuesday afternoon, potentially lasting into Tuesday night, primarily for the Valley and Southeast. Those winds will also mark another shot of cold air arriving in the region."
That blast of cold air isn't expected to be as severe as the cold snap we had earlier this month.
"A cold, arctic airmass will build in behind this system, and that will drop temperatures for Wednesday with highs between -20 to -22, but the cold isn’t expected to last too long with slightly below seasonal temperatures expected Thursday, potentially around zero for Friday ahead of the next potential snow maker, and then cold, but I wouldn’t call it bitterly cold, for the weekend as we hover between -16 and -20."
The average daytime high for this point in January is -12, and the overnight low is -22.