The Senior Climatologist for Environment Canada says they are calling for a fall in southern Manitoba that is warmer than normal.
September 1st is the start of meteorological fall. David Phillips says there is a very good chance that September will produce a hotter day than what was felt on any day in either July or August.
Environment Canada is currently calling for Saturday to reach 34 degrees in Southern Manitoba.
When you look back at meteorological summer, which was June, July and August, Phillips refers to it as "odd." He explains that we went straight from winter to summer with both May and June being about four degrees warmer than normal.
"It was sort of like the front end of the four months was absolutely torrid and really dramatically warm and then it just kind of petered out," he says. "July and August typically the warmest months just didn't come across."
Phillips says July ended up being about half a degree cooler than normal, while August was about half a degree warmer than normal. However, he says a lot of that was because of the nighttime temperatures that ended up being one degree above average.
In terms of precipitation, Phillips says the months of May, June, July and August saw about 60 per cent of normal. He notes there were 61 days of rain during that time, but no large amounts at any one time.
Back to the fall weather outlook, Phillips says summer is certainly not over for southern Manitoba. In fact, Environment Canada is calling for September to be warmer than normal across Canada.
"A lot of heat still left in the lakes and the land and the oceans," he says. "The oceans are like hot tubs out there, so that's going to temper any kind of cold that comes our way."
But Phillips says you need to put that into perspective, noting the average temperature in September is six degrees cooler than August.
"So that's the kind of drop-off that you see," says Phillips. "Because the days are shorter, less day length, the sun is lower in the sky."
And, Phillips says they are also calling for the month of September to have below normal precipitation.
With September also comes the threat of frost. Phillips says September 17th is the normal first day of frost in southern Manitoba. Phillips says he would be surprised if we made it through September without the mercury dipping below zero.
Meanwhile, Phillips says this winter we should be under the influence of an El Nino. Historically that means a milder than normal winter for Manitoba. And, Phillips says this one is characterized as a strong El Nino.
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