The transition from summer to fall across southern Manitoba has been a smooth one so far.  Weather Network meteorologist Doug Gilham says we've enjoyed above seasonal temperatures throughout September and that pattern should hold until mid October.

"It's nice to see above average weather since fall can be very tumultuous where temperatures can roller coaster throughout the season."

Gilham says their forecasting models also point to mild weather for the month of December and a mild winter overall.

"When we look at what we typically see for a Manitoba winter, this winter should be milder than normal and less snowy, especially the first half from December and into January. For Manitoba, as we get to the second half of winter, we think there will still be several weeks of traditional winter weather, so Manitobans aren't going to get off scot-free."

Many of us wonder, sometimes out loud, how weather forecasters can predict what winter is going to be like when they can't even get next week's forecast right. However, Gilham says seasonal forecasting is a much different kind of forecasting.

"Typically people want to know if it's going to rain at their cottage on Saturday, but we're certainly not going to tell you if its going to rain or snow on November 10, for example. But as you step back and look at overall weather patterns, sometimes that's actually easier to do for a season than to tell you if it's going to rain or snow on a particular day."

Gillam points out, when it comes to measuring success, the Weather Network's overall pattern for the past six seasons has been fairly accurate.

"That doesn't guarantee future success at all, but we have some key drivers to the weather patterns right now and when you have those strong drivers it gives you confidence in figuring out the overall pattern."