A Senior Climatologist with Environment Canada says leave it up to Canadians to talk about winter before summer is even over.
    
But David Phillips says he's more confident in forecasting the weather we'll see this coming winter than the weather we'll see the rest of this summer. That's because of an El Nino building in the Pacific Equatorial region.

According to Phillips, an El Nino is a warm current of water that exists thousands of kilometres away, which can influence our winters. Though an El Nino doesn't cancel a winter, it typically produces winters with milder weather and less precipitation.

But Phillips says this is no ordinary El Nino that's building, it's a Super El Nino. Instead of water temperatures that are half a degree warmer than normal, a Super El Nino can push water temperatures two or three degrees warmer. And because this body of water is twice the size of Canada, Phillips says it can impact the jet stream; bringing more southerly air and less arctic air.

Phillips says we have had six Super El Ninos over the last 65 years. All but one of them produced a winter that was much warmer than normal on the Prairies.

"There's no guarantee, you can't bet all your life savings on this," says Phillips. "But clearly the dice are loaded to give you a milder than normal winter if the El Nino kind of carries on and strengthens as we think it will."

The last Super El Nino was during the winter of 1997-98. This winter, which came on the heels of the Flood Of The Century, produced the 7th warmest winter in 68 years. Phillips says the winter of 1986-87 was another one of those winters where people were wearing short sleeves in January and February. An El Nino usually comes in late fall and will often last between nine and fifteen months.

Phillips points out the Prairies are not yet under the influence of an El Nino, and so you can't associate that as the reason for last winter's milder temperatures or the drought on the Prairies. Yet, around the world, it is already creating droughts. Phillips says places close to the equator, such as Ecuador, Peru, Australia and Indonesia are already responding to the warm pool of water. There have also been fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, which too is a sign.

"But because we're further north, really the United States and Canada, we have to be patient and wait for it," he says.

Phillips says however, while some people may view a mild winter as a good thing as it cuts down on heating costs, there are reasons why a cold winter is beneficial. He compares a cold winter to hitting the reset button on your computer.

"It's sort of getting rid of the bugs and the viruses and the diseases that other countries have to fight and deal with in such huge numbers," notes Phillips. "So that's one thing about the cold, it gives you kind of an honest kind of weather, it kind of kills all those vermints and varmints and allows us to get through without having those challenges."

Furthermore, he says a dry winter could mean another year of drought for areas on the Prairies.

"If I could manufacture the weather for you, I'd always give you normal weather," says Phillips.