After the coldest February in 52 years, do not expect a sudden shift to spring-like weather. That is the word from David Phillips, Senior Climatologist with Environment Canada.

Phillips says another wave of cold air will occupy the area for the next week, dropping daytime highs 10 to 12 degrees below normal. After that, Phillips says we will experience a gradual warming. In fact, he says it will probably be mid-March before the temperature finally creeps above the freezing mark in southern Manitoba. Phillips says the last time that happened was January 3rd.

Phillips has issued his spring weather outlook for southern Manitoba. Because of the cold start, he expects March will end up being a little cooler than normal, but then for April to be warmer than normal. As for precipitation, Phillips says that is always difficult to forecast long range. However, he reminds us that there is normally sees about 25 centimetres of snow after March 1st.

As mentioned, last month was the coldest February since 1967. The average afternoon temperature last month was -14.3 degrees, when -7.0 degrees is normal. There were 21 days when the temperature hit at least -20 degrees, when the normal for February is 12. And, there were five days last month of at least -30 degrees, compared to the historical average of three days. According to Phillips, the coldest day in February was on the 10th of the month when the temperature plummeted to -35.1 degrees. In fact, he says every day in February ended up being colder than normal.

"It's been a long bout," he says. "People are getting a little weather-worn I think, they are hoping for some warmth coming quite soon."

According to Phillips, four of the last five months have now been cooler than normal for southern Manitoba. The lone exception was December. And if you think it doesn't snow when it's so cold, guess again. Phillips says southern Manitoba has received above normal snowfall this winter.

If you recall 2018, southern Manitoba went from slush to sweat. Phillips says it ended up being one of the coldest months of April on record, followed by May being one of the warmest ever.

"This year, all the models seem to suggest that we'll gradually get rid of the cold and the mildness will come," he says.

But, if there is a silver lining, Phillips says keep in mind that the shift from March to April can produce the greatest jump in average temperature of any two months on the calendar. He notes the mean temperature in mid-April is more than 10 degrees warmer than the mean temperature in mid-March. That means, that even with normal temperatures, days in April should be considerably warmer than a month earlier.

"I think overall you are going to have to be a little bit more patient," stresses Phillips. "You are not going to rush to spring-like weather but on the other hand I think that wouldn't be good, given the amount of snow sitting on the ground."